External interference: the main destabilizing factor in the South Caucasus?

The foreign policies of the architects of the ‘rules-based’ world order, primarily the United States and leading EU member states like France, have for decades been associated with the practice of ‘intervention.’ This includes both direct military interventions and the use of soft power. Today, however, countries are increasingly vocal in their unwillingness to allow…

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Azerbaijan’s Contribution to Regional Connectivity

Azerbaijan’s focus on improving transportation infrastructure has been central to its role in enhancing regional connectivity, especially in the broader context of linking Europe and Asia. As part of the effort to revive the historic Silk Road, significant progress has been made in expanding trade and transportation networks—particularly rail and maritime routes that facilitate intercontinental…

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The AIR Center hosted a presentation of the book titled “Armenian nationalist irredentism and the Karabakh wars”

On February 5, 2025, the AIR Center hosted a presentation of the book titled “Armenian nationalist irredentism and the Karabakh wars.” In his opening remarks, Chairman of the Board of the AIR Center Farid Shafiyev emphasized that certain narratives promoted by Armenia and the Armenian diaspora—such as the claim that the events leading to the…

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A Year in Review: Armenia and Azerbaijan Getting Nearer to Peace

One year ago, in a piece titled “Armenian–Azerbaijani rapprochement: Facing a hurdle,” I concluded that Armenia is stuck between myth and reality and has to move from myths related to ‘imagined communities’ defined by kinship and history to new, pragmatic relations with its neighbors, Azerbaijan and Türkiye.[1] Today, despite some sporadic attempts by the Pashinyan…

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Armenia’s Militarization: Fueling A Security Dilemma In The South Caucasus – OpEd

The “security dilemma” is one of the key concepts in the academic study of international relations and foreign policy. First articulated by John Hertz in 1950 and subsequently analyzed in detail by scholars such as Robert Jervis, Charles Glaeser, and others, the security dilemma describes how actions taken by one state to enhance its security—building…

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Armenia’s confession: Ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijanis and its legacy

When a video of former President of Armenia Levon-Ter Petrosyan confessing to ethnic cleansing against non-Armenians in Armenia and the Karabakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan at the congress of the terrorist organization “Yerkrapa” in 1993 was revealed 31 years later, it led to serious debate. Yerkpara was founded by Armenia’s first defense minister,…

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Baku hosted the international conference titled “France and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict”

On January 31st, 2025, the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) organized an international conference titled “France and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.” In his introductory remarks, Chairman of the Board of the AIR Center, Farid Shafiyev, stressed that the cool down in the bilateral relations is solely the responsibility of France. He noted that…

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Airplane Crash Exposes Flaws in Baku-Moscow Relations

Executive Summary: On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of transparency, and open airspace amid tensions, leading President Ilham Aliyev…

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