The signing of a strategic partnership document in Washington between Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken can be considered an unsurprising and anticipated development. Over the past four years, the Biden administration’s Armenia-focused regional policies, the deepening of bilateral cooperation in various spheres, and the June 2024 decision by the U.S. and Armenian governments to elevate their relations to the level of a strategic partnership made the signing of such a document predictable.
Another important point worth noting is that the Pashinyan government chose to sign this significant document with the Biden administration during its final days in power. This indicates that the Armenian government may lack confidence in the long-term prospects of bilateral relations and, therefore, aims to institutionalize the development of U.S.-Armenia ties under the current administration.
From a broader context, the signing of the strategic partnership charter between the two countries prompts a reassessment of the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus. Evaluating the potential threats and challenges posed by this agreement for Azerbaijan necessitates a regional and global perspective.
The U.S. Approach to Strategic Partnerships
The United States has signed strategic partnership agreements with various countries worldwide, typically encompassing security, economy, energy, and democracy. For instance:
1. Georgia: In 2009, the U.S. and Georgia signed a Strategic Partnership Charter. This agreement expanded cooperation in security, energy, and democratic reforms.
2. Kazakhstan: The U.S. has developed strategic partnerships with Kazakhstan, focusing on energy, nuclear security, and economic cooperation. For example, Kazakhstan’s uranium reserves have been a central focus of collaboration.
3. Turkey: As NATO allies, the U.S. and Turkey maintain a strategic partnership covering security, defense industries, and energy sectors.
These examples could be extended further. As demonstrated, U.S. strategic partnership agreements encompass political, military, economic, and social components. The agreement with Armenia should be analyzed within this context.
According to official statements from both countries, the U.S.-Armenia strategic partnership agreement primarily focuses on two areas:
1. Security Cooperation: A special U.S. border security group is scheduled to visit Armenia next week. This signifies collaboration in border protection and efforts to enhance American influence in the region. Additionally, military cooperation, joint exercises, and military education programs are part of the agreement.
2. Deepening Strategic Dialogue: This agreement is a continuation of the strategic dialogue announced in June 2024 and reflects Armenia’s efforts toward integration with the West.
U.S.-Azerbaijan Relations: Is There a Strategic Partnership?
Azerbaijan and the U.S. have engaged in long-standing cooperation in the energy sector. Beginning with the “Contract of the Century” in 1994, this collaboration resulted in significant U.S. oil company investments in Azerbaijan’s economy. This agreement also facilitated Azerbaijan’s integration into Western energy markets.
Additionally, Azerbaijan has cooperated with the U.S. on counterterrorism, border security, and regional stability. However, this cooperation has not been formalized under a “strategic partnership” designation, marking a critical difference compared to Armenia’s agreement.
Is the U.S.-Armenia Agreement a Threat to Azerbaijan?
It would be inaccurate to classify this agreement as a direct threat to Azerbaijan. There is no evidence that the U.S. intends to form a military alliance with Armenia or pursue specific anti-Azerbaijani policies under this framework. However, the agreement does present certain challenges for Azerbaijan:
1. Weakened U.S.-Azerbaijan Relations: The warming of U.S.-Armenia ties could further strain already problematic relations between Baku and Washington.
2. Potential Armenian Armament: In the near term, Armenia may accelerate its military modernization with U.S. support.
3. Impact on the Peace Process: The elevation of U.S.-Armenia relations to a strategic partnership level could negatively affect the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Feeling U.S. backing, Armenia might adopt less constructive positions during negotiations.
4. Regional Implications: U.S. support for Armenia in border security could draw attention from neighboring countries such as Iran and Russia.
In conclusion, while the U.S.-Armenia strategic partnership agreement introduces new dynamics to the South Caucasus, it does not constitute a direct threat to Azerbaijan. It is also essential to note that this document reflects a partnership, not an alliance. As seen with similar agreements signed with other post-Soviet states, the U.S. employs these partnerships to pursue its regional interests.
Despite the challenges posed by this agreement, Azerbaijan does not adopt a pessimistic view of its future relations with the U.S. The primary reason for this cautious optimism in Baku is the anticipated administration of Donald Trump. There is a belief that the new administration might revise its predecessor’s irrational South Caucasus policies and elevate relations with Azerbaijan to a new partnership level.
Overall, the main goal of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy remains to deepen existing cooperation with regional and global power centers, including the U.S., to achieve stability and progress in the region.
