The South Caucasus region has been one of the important issues on the international security agenda over the past decades. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which lasted for many years and ended with Azerbaijan liberating its territories from occupation in 2020, has created new realities in the region. In the post-war period, a peace process was initiated between the parties at the initiative of Azerbaijan, and particularly over the past year a noticeable positive dynamic has been observed in this process. Peace negotiations are of decisive importance for the long-term stability of the region. At the same time, existing geopolitical circumstances and domestic political factors continue to directly influence the trajectory of the peace process. Although the progress achieved in recent months indicates that a new regional reality has effectively emerged between the parties, the absence of a formally signed peace agreement and the persistence of revanchist tendencies within Armenia negatively affect the peace process.
As noted earlier, certain positive dynamics have been observed in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process during 2024-2025. It should also be specifically noted that two key factors have played a decisive role in generating a significant positive dynamic in the peace process. The first was Azerbaijan’s restoration of full sovereignty over its territories following the anti – terror operations conducted in Karabakh in September 2023. The second was Armenia’s acceptance of Azerbaijan’s proposal to conduct the negotiation process without external mediation. Consequently, Armenia’s gradual recognition of the new realities that emerged in the region after 2023 has contributed substantially to the emergence of a constructive and positive dynamic in the peace process. The intensification of diplomatic negotiations and meetings held on various international platforms demonstrate that the parties are attempting to make progress toward signing a peace agreement. During this period, negotiations conducted over the text of the peace treaty resulted in the document being agreed upon and the peace agreement being initialed. High-level meetings held within the framework of the diplomatic process are among the key indicators of this momentum. The leaders’ meeting held in Abu Dhabi in July 2025, and particularly the Washington summit organized in August 2025 with the participation of the United States as an international partner, made an important contribution to advancing the peace process. These meetings demonstrated the political will of the parties to continue dialogue and ensure regional stability.
Overall, it would not be an exaggeration to regard the Washington summit as a major turning point in the peace process. The agreements reached at the summit carried significant importance in several directions: the initialing of the text of the peace treaty; the reaffirmation of mutual recognition of territorial integrity; the formal commitment to refrain from the use of force; the determination of a concrete roadmap for opening transportation and economic communications; and the establishment of mechanisms aimed at preventing incidents along the border. The summit also marked a concrete step toward ending the legal existence of the OSCE Minsk Group and related structures, which represent remnants of the former conflict.
A number of analysts note that in recent times the format of negotiations has increasingly relied on direct bilateral contacts. This development indicates that the parties themselves are assuming greater responsibility in resolving outstanding issues. Such an approach, while not eliminating the role of international partners, enables the parties to identify more practical solutions through direct engagement. Progress in the peace process has generated not only diplomatic developments but also new opportunities for cooperation in economic and humanitarian spheres. In particular, following the Washington summit, the potential for cooperation in areas such as economics, logistics, and energy has begun to receive greater attention, and several practical steps have already been taken.
Several developments illustrate this trend. As an initial example of the opening of transit connections between the two countries, Kazakh grain was transported to Armenia through the territory of Azerbaijan in October 2025. The Office of the Prime Minister of Armenia described this step as “a major development” for the opening of regional communications and the institutionalization of confidence-building. Subsequently, cargo transportation to Armenia via Azerbaijan became a continuing process. At the same time, in recent months a limited energy-trade channel has also emerged between the two countries. According to official data, the value of exports from Azerbaijan to Armenia in 2025 amounted to 788,800 US dollars, while exports in the opposite direction were not recorded. Although this figure remains modest in terms of overall trade turnover, it carries political significance as the first measurable indicator following a long period of zero economic exchange.
One of the important directions of the peace agenda concerns the practical implementation of the TRIPP initiative (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity). The project envisions the integration of transportation, energy, and logistics infrastructure across the region. More broadly, the opening of regional communication lines has the potential to increase the role of the South Caucasus in international transport and energy corridors. In this context, possible cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the fields of transportation and logistics could contribute to the economic integration of the region.
In addition, the organization of reciprocal visits between civil society representatives of the two countries in recent months constitutes another noteworthy development. Promoting dialogue among public sector actors from both societies can play an important role in fostering long-term peace and rebuilding an atmosphere of trust. Such initiatives contribute to restoring confidence between the parties and help shape a new model of cooperation in the post-conflict period.
Despite the fact that a peace agreement has not yet been formally signed, a new security reality has effectively taken shape in the region. The absence of large-scale military confrontations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent years, combined with the continuation of diplomatic dialogue, has contributed to the emergence of relative stability. President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has also highlighted this reality in his statements, noting that a de facto peace currently exists in the region and that genuine opportunities have emerged for the normalization of relations between the parties. Within this context, the new geopolitical environment in the South Caucasus creates important opportunities for the region’s future development. The signing of a peace agreement would serve as a key step in establishing the legal and institutional foundations of this de facto stability.
Alongside the existing positive dynamics, one of the principal political and legal obstacles to the signing of a peace agreement concerns the Constitution of Armenia. According to the position of the Azerbaijani side, provisions within the Armenian Constitution that are linked to territorial claims against Azerbaijan constitute a serious legal obstacle to the conclusion of a peace treaty. Unless these provisions are amended, the durability and legal legitimacy of any signed peace agreement could remain in question. For this reason, Azerbaijan considers amendments to the relevant provisions of the Armenian Constitution to be an essential condition for signing the peace agreement. A number of international analysts likewise emphasize that such constitutional changes would represent one of the key steps toward the full normalization of relations between the two countries.
Another major factor influencing the peace process relates to domestic political dynamics within Armenia. In particular, the activity of revanchist political forces is assessed as a potential threat to the relative stability achieved in the region. In this regard, the parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in Armenia in June of this year carry particular significance. Should revanchist or radical political forces come to power, the risk of disruption to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process would increase and could potentially lead to a new wave of regional tensions. Therefore, the continued support of global and regional actors for the peace process and the preservation of dialogue between the parties remain critically important. Long-term stability can be achieved only through political compromise and regional cooperation.
In conclusion, it can be noted that over the past year noticeable progress has been achieved in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. The intensification of diplomatic dialogue, the holding of high-level meetings, the achievement of significant agreements, and the emergence of economic, humanitarian, and logistical connections have created new opportunities for cooperation and laid the groundwork for the formation of sustainable peace in the region. At the same time, several fundamental political and legal issues must still be resolved in order to enable the signing of the peace agreement, which remains a crucial component of the overall process.
In particular, provisions contained in the Constitution of Armenia continue to represent one of the principal obstacles to the conclusion of a peace agreement. Furthermore, in the context of the parliamentary elections scheduled for June, the increasing activity of revanchist political forces within Armenia may pose serious challenges to the peace process. The transformation of the peace agenda into an instrument of domestic political competition could weaken the dynamics of normalization and undermine the trust that has been established. In this regard, the sustainability of peace depends not only on intergovernmental agreements but also on the emergence of domestic political consensus. Despite the existing challenges, the formation of a de facto peace environment in the region opens important prospects for the future of the South Caucasus. Preserving this momentum and consolidating it through the signing of a peace agreement will be decisive both for regional stability and for long-term economic development.
