From decline to ascent: Europe’s petrochemical crisis and the Caspian opportunity

“Who controls the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world.” — Halford Mackinder, 1904 In the early 2010s, the European petrochemical industry stood as a global benchmark — technologically sophisticated, environmentally conscious, and commercially competitive. From Antwerp to the Ruhr, European refineries and crackers powered the continent’s industrial base, serving the…

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From Pragmatism to Polarization? Azerbaijan-Russia tensions and the South Caucasus reset

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia is undergoing a fundamental shift, marked by rising tensions, strategic recalibrations, and broader geopolitical implications for the South Caucasus. What might have begun as isolated incidents—dismissed by some as bureaucratic turf wars or local criminality—has evolved into a wider geopolitical rupture. The Baku-Moscow axis, once grounded in transactional pragmatism,…

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Iran-Israel escalations reaffirm the need for Armenia to diversify foreign trade

The June 2025 Iran-Israel escalations, though brief, disrupted Armenia’s economic activity on the trade routes passing through Iran, one of its major trade partners. Probability of continuing risks to economic stability and trade have sparked widespread concern in Armenian media and expert circles, surfacing in parallel to the anticipated threats to Armenian security, significantly contingent…

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The EU’s response to China’s growing influence in Central and Eastern Europe

The 16+1 Initiative, introduced by the People’s Republic of China in 2012, represents a strategic framework aimed at deepening economic and diplomatic engagement with sixteen Central and Eastern European (CEE) states. As a complementary mechanism to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it was initially lauded for its potential to bolster infrastructure development, enhance trade…

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The end of the JCPOA era? Multilateral diplomacy meets military escalation

Following the ceasefire that ended the twelve-day Iran-Israel war, tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program are approaching a pivotal juncture: the imminent expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015. Many of the mechanisms embedded in the resolution, including the critical snapback mechanism, will cease to apply after 18 October 2025, unless…

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China emerges as a rising power in the melting Arctic

In January 2018, China released its first white paper on the Arctic, titled “China’s Arctic Policy”. Sections in this document mention that “China is an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. Geographically, China is a “Near-Arctic State,” one of the continental states that are closest to the Arctic Circle.” This articulation of its status faced criticism, particularly…

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A ‘Break or Brake’ moment: post-Russia South Caucasus

There is a “break or brake” moment emerging for the South Caucasus as it enters a completely new geopolitical realm. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine has forced the three republics to recalibrate their distance from Moscow: Armenia and Azerbaijan have intensified a rather subtle decoupling, whereas Georgia is attempting to symbolically reorient itself toward a…

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