The SCO’s Tianjin summit and the South Caucasus: signals for a shifting order

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) gathered for its latest summit in Tianjin at the turn of August and September, bringing together leaders from across Eurasia under the watchful eye of China. Established in 2001 as a forum primarily for security cooperation, the SCO has grown into a heavyweight in global governance. Today, its members represent…

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Recasting multi-vectorism: a western-anchored strategy for Azerbaijan

The rapid erosion of the liberal international order has generated multiple dislocations in the South Caucasus, placing Azerbaijan at the crossroads of competing region-building projects. As the unipolar, neoliberal framework recedes, Azerbaijan’s long-standing multi-vector foreign policy faces mounting challenges under intensifying external pressures. During the unipolar era, international institutions anchored in liberal norms provided a…

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Mahammad Mehdiyev attends summer school in China

From 7 July to 1 August 2025, Topchubashov Center’s Research Fellow Mahammad Mehdiyev attended a Chinese language summer school at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU) in Suzhou, China. He was selected for this programme by the University of Milan, which supported his participation tuition-free. The programme, hosted by one of China’s leading Sino-British universities, combined intensive…

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Azerbaijani exceptionalism: Baku’s strategic independence amid Russian policy against GUAM

The antagonistic relationship between the proverbial “East” and “West” is gradually re-entering the discourse of International Relations scholars amid what many see as the resurgence of great power competition. This dichotomy between two spheres of influence—from the colonial Occident versus Orient, to the modern Pax Americana versus the so-called “Axis of Upheaval”—shall survive forever in…

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A historic pivot in Armenia and Azerbaijan: the promise of peace and the road ahead

On August 8, in an unexpected yet very symbolic venue, the White House, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint memorandum to show their commitment to peace and define parameters of a possible solution to the connectivity dispute in southern Zangezur. The Trump administration has been “working” on the Armenia-Azerbaijan matters ever since early March, and…

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Murad Muradov attends Jakarta Futures Forum

On 5-6 August 2025, Topchubashov Center Deputy Director Murad Muradov attended the Jakarta Futures Forum in Indonesia, co-hosted by the Observer Research Foundation (India) and Center for Strategic and International Studies (Indonesia). The conference brought together more than 150 participants from 50 countries who discussed, among others, the issues concerning Asian politics, maritime security, global…

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From decline to ascent: Europe’s petrochemical crisis and the Caspian opportunity

“Who controls the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world.” — Halford Mackinder, 1904 In the early 2010s, the European petrochemical industry stood as a global benchmark — technologically sophisticated, environmentally conscious, and commercially competitive. From Antwerp to the Ruhr, European refineries and crackers powered the continent’s industrial base, serving the…

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From Pragmatism to Polarization? Azerbaijan-Russia tensions and the South Caucasus reset

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia is undergoing a fundamental shift, marked by rising tensions, strategic recalibrations, and broader geopolitical implications for the South Caucasus. What might have begun as isolated incidents—dismissed by some as bureaucratic turf wars or local criminality—has evolved into a wider geopolitical rupture. The Baku-Moscow axis, once grounded in transactional pragmatism,…

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