We can reasonably assume now that the drone attack on the Nakhchivan region of Azerbaijan was not a so-called flag operation by Israel or the US. It was a deliberate action by Iran. The question remains whether the decision was made in Tehran or at a lower command, but judging from the unofficial accounts associated with the SEPAH (Revolutionary Guards), it was their decision. Definitely, it is not an accident. Attacks were carried out not by one drone but by several on two sites in Nakhchivan – the international airport and a school. Neither do I believe that a missile attack on Turkiye was an accident. It was a deliberate move. Anyone can ask – why Iran is doing that, because Turkiye and Azerbaijan remained neutral during this war (and last year’s war). Despite the wave of fake news that Azerbaijan somehow facilitated Israel last year, it was completely fake. Otherwise, multiple sources, including Western ones sympathetic to Iran (including some liberal outlets like the BBC), would report that with hard evidence. Azerbaijan, which a few years ago closed a chapter of the conflict with Armenia, is not interested in any other conflicts despite the horde of “experts” (radical Armenians in diaspora, pro-Iranian sympathizers, etc) alleging the opposite. Definitely, Turkiye has serious concerns about the unrest in Iran and its effects on its security and regional geopolitics; therefore, Ankara opposed the war. So, then why? Well, we are thinking from conventional logic. Iranian radicals think differently, defying our sense of rationality. Note – Iran even attacked Oman, which made every effort to prevent the current war. Iranian FM Araqchi’s explanation actually says that while Iran is not targeting those Muslim countries, it aims at US-linked sites. You can assume that he implies that strikes in neighboring countries, including airports, are deemed by Tehran to be aimed at US-linked sites. Iranian radicals think that by doing that, they:
1. Spread the conflict to inflict damage on other countries;
2. To make those countries unhappy about the US-Israeli operations;
3. To challenge the world (we have in the Azerbaijani expression ‘meydan oxumaq’ – a similar expression present in Farsi too (meydani-khani), which fits with the mindset of many Revolutionary Guards who came to the service from the lower stratum of society and lack the sophistication we might assume). This is the factor I mean when I say that their logic is different. Probably, it is something regional. Armenian military commanders, before the 2020 war with Azerbaijan, cheered the upcoming war and said they would have tea on the shore of the Caspian Sea in Baku. You know by now how it ended with a complete Armenian defeat on the battlefield.
The trend we see now is that countries that played no role in the war are expressing anti-Iranian sentiments. If you watch Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s interview, he was quite harsh about Iran’s negotiating tactics. This is another thing you would be puzzled by. While many would measure negotiation success by how quickly you can achieve results, Iranians actually express pride that they can postpone the decision by extending the negotiation. This is not only about the nuclear deal. Now, for almost 20 years, Iran has been dragging talks about the North-South corridor with its political ally Russia, just because they think of not their own benefits they can get from the transport route, but are concerned about Azerbaijan’s profit (well, all three countries will profit from this commercial project). In a similar vein, they are not ratifying the Convention on the Caspian Sea, adopted in 2018. So, for a moment, you should put aside Israel or the US. You can challenge many things these countries are doing from international law or humanitarian perspectives. You should analyze what Iran is doing through a particular analytical lens, including with its own people – lack of water and electricity, for example (the country is the largest energy asset in the world). Would they care for their Muslim neighbours? I guess this is the last chapter.
