{"id":452,"date":"2024-10-30T09:41:33","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T05:41:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/?p=452"},"modified":"2024-10-30T09:41:33","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T05:41:33","slug":"horns-crossed-geopolitical-struggle-over-the-eastern-edge-of-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/archives\/452","title":{"rendered":"Horns Crossed: Geopolitical struggle over the Eastern edge of Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Horn of Africa for years has been a hotbed of conflicts, but the events of the last year have increased the tensions in the region even more. In January an important issue emerged between Ethiopia and Somalia, when Ethiopia signed a\u00a0memorandum of understanding<\/a>\u00a0with Somaliland to rent 20 km of the coastline. One of the major reasons behind this move was that as a landlocked country, Ethiopia currently has access to international waters only via Djibouti.\u00a0With this agreement<\/a>, Ethiopia would have gained access to the Red Sea through the ports in Somaliland. Somalia\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0that this move violates international law, considering that Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in 1991 but is still not recognized by the international community. In a retaliatory move, Somalia\u00a0decided to expel<\/a>\u00a0Ethiopian soldiers that were in the country for a peacekeeping operation. As the tension between the two sides kept rising, T\u00fcrkiye stepped in as a mediator, several trilateral meetings having been held this\u00a0July<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0August<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, there is an ongoing conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa over Ethiopia\u2019s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. The project was\u00a0launched<\/a>\u00a0in 2011 and ever since has remained a source of tension between the two countries. Ethiopia\u00a0considers<\/a>\u00a0the dam, which is located on the Nile River, to be critical for its energy supply and hence economic development. However, since Egypt almost fully relies on the Nile for its water supply, it\u00a0views<\/a>\u00a0this project as a threat to its water and national security. Despite several rounds of negotiations over recent years, the issue remains unresolved, exacerbating the countries\u2019 rivalry.<\/p>\n

While these conflicts are still ongoing, Egypt and T\u00fcrkiye have been working on a normalization process after a decade of diplomatic tensions, following the 2013 coup that brought Egypt\u2019s current President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to power. As it was mentioned at the joint press conference of Presidents Erdo\u011fan and Sisi, other than the Israel-Hamas war and the humanitarian issue in Gaza, the Horn of Africa is an issue\u00a0concerning<\/a>\u00a0both sides. In light of these, there is an important question to be answered: how will T\u00fcrkiye and Egypt\u2019s strategic interests intersect here and what will be the consequences for the Horn of Africa?<\/p>\n

In order to find a meaningful answer to this question, it is crucial to understand the position of all the sides mentioned above in the region. Ethiopia is one of the largest economies of Africa and has one of the largest populations in the continent. However, for years the country\u00a0has suffered<\/a>\u00a0from internal conflicts, which has significantly compromised its development. Its landlocked status spurs Addis Ababa\u2019s interest in Somaliland, as it is looking for new ways to gain access to international waters which would largely benefit the country\u2019s economy. Moreover, a unified and strong Somalia can be a potential threat to Ethiopia\u2019s influence in the region. So, it is in Ethiopia\u2019s interests to use Somaliland as a leverage in its relations with Somalia. On the other hand, Somalia\u2019s main goal is to establish control within its borders and reintegrate areas like Somaliland into its territory. Somalia views the possible recognition of the independence of Somaliland as a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. So, it is trying to enhance its relations with international actors like T\u00fcrkiye, Egypt, the UN and the African Union, which would eventually benefit the country in establishing control and stability within its borders.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s influence in the Horn of Africa has significantly grown in the last decade, which was driven by its strategic goal of expanding its relations with the African countries. Its engagement in the region was focused primarily on Somalia in the form of military cooperation, economic investments, and humanitarian aid which in total\u00a0exceeded<\/a>\u00a0USD 1 bn. T\u00fcrkiye sees and for many times declared its relations with Somalia as an example of how to engage in diplomatic relations with the countries of the continent. The two countries\u2019 relations peaked in February 2024 when they\u00a0signed a memorandum<\/a>\u00a0according to which T\u00fcrkiye would protect Somalia\u2019s coastlines and maritime borders, increasing Turkish presence and influence in the region.<\/p>\n

Beyond this, T\u00fcrkiye has close relations with Ethiopia as well, to whom it gave military support during the recent civil conflicts, and\u00a0its companies have made substantial investments<\/a>. Turkish companies have been very active in building infrastructure in the country, and the two sides view each other as important partners. However, their bilateral relations can become more complicated in the future mainly because of the conflict over GERD, as the importance of Egypt for T\u00fcrkiye has grown a lot with the major escalation over Gaza. Furthermore, when it comes to mediation efforts between Ethiopia and Somalia, it is reasonable to argue that regional stability is in Ankara\u2019s interests, as it would help it benefit from economic projects and protect its influence in the region.<\/p>\n

Following the GERD project by Ethiopia, the importance of the Horn of Africa for Egypt has been growing in recent years. Cairo has called for international support as it tried to put pressure on Ethiopia to reach a possible deal. However, Addis Ababa insists on control over the dam arguing that it is crucial for its energy supply and overall economy, and rejects the claims made by the Egyptian side about threatening its water security. Considering the importance of the issue, Egypt has tried to strengthen its ties with Sudan, another country on the Nile which has been suffering from internal conflicts. So, considering the\u00a0statement<\/a>\u00a0made by the Turkish side following the recent meeting of Presidents Erdo\u011fan and Sisi, it can be assumed that the two sides might cooperate in Sudan to try to end the internal conflict, which could benefit both sides \u2013 Egypt would benefit by finding a possible ally with whom to cooperate over the GERD issue, and T\u00fcrkiye would further expand its influence in the region.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Egypt has been\u00a0actively investing<\/a>\u00a0in Somalia\u2019s security and supporting its territorial integrity. The most important reason for this is that any possible security issue in the Horn of Africa would be a possible threat to the Egyptian economy. Since the ships going through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea eventually cross the Bab al-Mandab strait, located between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, any conflict in the region would have a significant effect on the security of this trade route, damaging the Egyptian economy. Furthermore, the Egyptian side understands that instability in Somalia enables other regional actors to project their influence. So, it is in Egypt\u2019s interests to support Somalia\u2019s security and territorial integrity. As a result of this, the two countries\u00a0signed<\/a>\u00a0a defense agreement which further enhanced their cooperation and showed the determination of the Egyptian side in countering Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa.<\/p>\n

When it comes to the two countries\u2019 relations with Ethiopia, considering the economic interests in Ethiopia, T\u00fcrkiye might find itself in a possible dilemma in the future regarding the GERD project if it is forced to support one of the sides. In general, Ankara\u2019s growing relations with Ethiopia undermine Cairo\u2019s strategic goals in the region. But T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s role in Somaliland might benefit Egyptian strategic interests, and since the role of Egypt for T\u00fcrkiye has become crucial after the conflict with Israel, it is reasonable to expect that Ankara would try to manage the situation and its interests in Ethiopia in a way that would not undermine its normalization process with Egypt. Moreover, it can be argued that in the future Egypt might even benefit from the Turkish influence in Ethiopia if a possible Turkish mediation over the GERD issue benefiting Egypt would come to the table.<\/p>\n

As a result, in the short term, possible collaboration in the Horn of Africa can be expected between Ankara and Cairo, as regional stability is in both sides\u2019 interests. However, in the long term, the Horn of Africa will probably remain a potential source of disagreements between the two sides. So, it is expected that while collaborating in the region, both countries will be monitoring each other\u2019s steps in the future. The outcomes of the Gaza conflict and geopolitical realities in the MENA region would determine how willful the two sides would be in working together. The coming years will show whether Egypt and T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s interests in the Horn of Africa would entail a competition or a collaboration.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/top-center.org\/en\/analytics\/3687\/horns-crossed-geopolitical-struggle-over-the-eastern-edge-of-africa<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Horn of Africa for years has been a hotbed of conflicts, but the events of the last year have increased the tensions in the region even more. In January an important issue emerged between Ethiopia and Somalia, when Ethiopia signed a\u00a0memorandum of understanding\u00a0with Somaliland to rent 20 km of the coastline. One of the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,33],"tags":[72,71,73,44],"class_list":["post-452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-topchubashov","tag-africa","tag-egypt","tag-horn-of-africa","tag-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=452"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":454,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452\/revisions\/454"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}