As headlines rage over an inevitable war between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Southern Lebanon, Hamas is using this time out of the spotlight to regroup, realign, and reposition. Eyes on the Israel-Hamas War are quickly shifting toward the north as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu orders a reduction of fighting against Hamas in the likelihood of a full frontal assault in the north. However, the tensions between Israel and Iran\u2019s Lebanese assets overshadow the slow but unprecedented realignment between Sunni Hamas and Iran\u2019s other majority-Shia ally, Iraq.<\/p>\n
Reports from several news outlets suggest Hamas leadership is looking to move its offices and personnel from Qatar to Iraq due to \u201cincreasing pressure from both Doha and the United States\u201d to show flexibility in negotiations with Israel to broker a ceasefire deal. Hamas leadership denies these claims stating \u201cThere is no truth in the reports suggesting Hamas is planning to leave,\u201d such that the advisor to the PM of Iraq reaffirmed that \u201cHamas offices will not be opened in Baghdad as the media reports claimed.\u201d These statements abrogate previous reports of the Iraqi government approving a move in May, after Hamas leadership, a senior Iraqi MP, and the Iranian FM Ali Bagheri met to discuss the opening of a Hamas \u201cmedia and public relations\u201d office in Iraq. Whether Hamas leadership moves with or denies this plan, it is undeniable that Iraq is assuming an important role in the greater proxy war between Israel and Iran.<\/p>\n
Baghdad\u2019s reaction to the Israel-Hamas War reflects stronger ties with Tehran<\/b><\/p>\n
Since the October 7th attacks, the streets of Baghdad have been a hotbed of anti-American and anti-Israel protests, most notably the \u201cmillion-man\u201d protests in Baghdad\u2019s Tahrir Square during Israel\u2019s initial retaliation in November 2023. Many of the protesters were supported by Iraq\u2019s influential Shiite figure Muqtada al-Sadr, a leader of the pro-Iran Sadr Movement which now holds 10 percent of the seats in Iraq\u2019s Council of Representatives. After al-Sadr’s initial boycott and nearly three years of mass protests against the elections from 2019 to 2021, his party\u2019s victory reasserted Iranian influence over Iraqi foreign policy thereby closing the gap between Israel and Iran\u2019s Shia Crescent Grand Strategy.<\/p>\n
Similar outbursts against the West continued into early June when a dozen masked men were seen storming, smashing, and violently raiding American-brand restaurants such as KFC, Lee\u2019s Famous Recipe Chicken, and Chili House in the Iraqi capital. The vandals were met by security forces hours after the attacks. These attacks were also orchestrated by supporters of the Iran-backed militias in Iraq, but what cannot be overemphasized is that these attacks are not simply exertions of Iranian influence over neighboring Iraq. Rather they reflect \u201csurging anger against the United States, Israel\u2019s top ally, over the war in Gaza.\u201d The message was made clear: \u201cNo to agents,\u201d \u201cno to Israel,\u201d and no to American influence even if that means upsetting relations with Washington.<\/p>\n
Whereas previous Iraqi parliaments tried to balance their relations with Tehran and Washington, the Israel-Hamas War and the return of the al-Sadr signal a simultaneous reformation from both the clerical, government elite, and the Iraqi people themselves toward an Iran-facing outlook.<\/p>\n
Is Iraq a \u201cplayground\u201d or is the government simply in recess?<\/b><\/p>\n
Experts characterize post-2003 Iraq as a \u201cplayground\u201d for American and Iranian interests, where dependence on Western investment and deference to Iranian-backed militias leaves Iraq with very little sovereignty. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who came to power with the backing of a pro-Iran coalition, is trying to reassert Iraq\u2019s sovereignty by emphasizing that Iraq is simply \u201cout of war,\u201d that is, reestablishing its relationship with Washington and Tehran without military considerations, despite the Israel-Hamas war greatly affecting Iraq\u2019s policies. In reality, the Iraqi government is more so in recess than actually mitigating sovereignty.<\/p>\n
Although in recent months Baghdad continues to cooperate with the US to reduce and protect soldiers stationed in the US, the government has essentially allowed its policies to be at the whim of Iran-backed militia groups which seek to deter US interests completely. Leaders of the Iran-backed militias such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba openly advocated for the violent demonstrations in Baghdad, but the Iraqi government did not respond with condemnation or consequences, rather, the involvement of security forces only after the fact. Furthermore, when US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski condemned the targeting of US-based businesses on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the Iraqi government did not respond with condolences or concern fearing backlash from the militia groups and further street-wide protests.<\/p>\n
Baghdad\u2019s policies of de-escalation are not proactive against the militias\u2019 intimidation tactics which interfere in domestic politics. The government continues to be reactive, where deploying security forces is only a means of appeasing Washington and showing faux stability.<\/p>\n
Implications for Hamas and Iraq<\/b><\/p>\n
Competing reports over Hamas leadership\u2019s move to Iraq leave much to be seen for both Hamas\u2019 branding and Iraq\u2019s people. Domestically, allowing Hamas to reside in Baghdad would be received very positively by most Shi\u2019i Iraqi citizens given \u2014 since the time of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War \u2014 Iraq continues to be one of the staunchest anti-Israel states in the Arab World, evidenced by the 2022 law making \u201cnormalizing\u201d ties with Israel a criminal offense punishable with a death sentence or life imprisonment.<\/p>\n
The Kurdish Region as well as some Sunni groups fear hosting Hamas leadership in Baghdad will \u201cdeepen differences with the United States,\u201d a state they continue to cooperate with given training and military support of their respective forces. Already, US Spokesperson Matthew Miller commented on the report of an alleged Hamas move to Baghdad stating that to \u201cevery government in the region there should be no more business as usual with Hamas after the horrific attacks of October 7th.\u201d<\/p>\n
The lack of consensus among the different ethnic groups, insecurity from the militia groups, and a feeble government will ultimately create a great environment for Hamas to stay in Baghdad in the long run. Hamas and backlash from the West should be the least of Iraq\u2019s worries, especially as Iraq has so swiftly chosen Tehran for support. Moreover, Iraq would be the perfect peace broker for Hamas as Iraq\u2019s unequivocal, undeniable hatred of Israel and sorry relations with the US would leave Hamas in the clear of a ceasefire deal. Qatar, in comparison, is a Western ally and a highly centralized kingdom that could easily remove Hamas leadership from the country if deemed necessary.<\/p>\n
Hamas has realigned and repositioned itself under the Iranian camp. The leadership does not have to be under the domain of the mollahs in Baghdad for experts to necessarily see how closely Hamas is working with Iran, not simply shirking its Muslim Brotherhood roots, but harmonizing their platforms for the purposes of attacking the Jewish State. The most one can say is Hamas is de facto an Iranian-backed militia group, certainly not to the extent Hezbollah, but a militant group that has decided to become a part of Iran\u2019s arsenal. What is to be taken from this \u201cmove\u201d is that the Iranian regime is streamlining its area of attack from Tehran all the way to Tel Aviv via its militias and proxies, clearly using Iraq as a foil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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