{"id":1971,"date":"2026-07-14T11:47:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T07:47:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/?p=1971"},"modified":"2026-07-14T11:47:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T07:47:59","slug":"the-geopolitics-of-connectivity-power-why-azerbaijan-holds-the-advantage-oped","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/archives\/1971","title":{"rendered":"The Geopolitics Of Connectivity Power: Why Azerbaijan Holds The Advantage \u2013 OpEd"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Azerbaijan dominates regional transit infrastructure:\u00a0<\/strong>With fully operational East-West (Middle Corridor) and North-South routes, expanded BTK railway (now 5 million tons capacity), and Port of Alat upgrades (to 25 million tons), Azerbaijan handles millions of tons of freight annually and continues expanding an existing network.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Armenia\u2019s \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d initiative faces severe constraints:<\/strong>\u00a0Mountainous terrain, harsh winters causing frequent road closures, lack of railway links to Iran, Russian-managed railways, and dependence on external financing limit its viability as a competitive transit hub.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Armenia\u2019s ambitions depend on Azerbaijan:<\/strong>\u00a0Most proposed routes require Baku\u2019s approval, normalization with Azerbaijan and T\u00fcrkiye, and integration with existing Azerbaijani infrastructure, making independent competition unrealistic in the foreseeable future.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The geoeconomic landscape of the South Caucasus is undergoing a profound transformation as global supply chains are being reshaped. Located at the crossroads of the East-West and North-South transport corridors, the region is seeing growing competition for the status of a key transit hub. Armenia\u2019s \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d initiative, promoted by the country\u2019s leadership, reflects Yerevan\u2019s ambition to play a more active role in regional connectivity projects and reduce Azerbaijan\u2019s growing geopolitical influence. However, an assessment of the existing transport infrastructure demonstrates that Armenia\u2019s ability to integrate into regional projects faces significant structural, geographical, climatic, and financial constraints. Moreover, the practical viability and long-term sustainability of the initiatives that Yerevan is seeking to build from the ground up fundamentally depend on Azerbaijan\u2019s already established and operational infrastructure network.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Azerbaijan\u2019s Infrastructure Dominance and State of Readiness<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the competition to become a transit hub, the main decisive factors are time and the availability of operational infrastructure. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan is not building regional transport corridors from scratch. Both the North\u2013South Transport Corridor and the East\u2013West route are already fully operational across Azerbaijani territory. According to official data, freight volumes in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/stat.gov.az\/news\/index.php?lang=en&amp;id=6615\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2025<\/a>\u00a0reached 16.91 million tons along the East-West Transport Corridor, including 8.17 million tons on the Europe-Caucasus-Asia corridor, 9.29 million tons on the International North-South Transport Corridor, 5.80 million tons on the Northwest Corridor, and 533,600 tons on the Southwest Corridor. Hence, Baku is actively expanding and upgrading an already functioning transport network in recognition of growing global demand for freight transportation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Azerbaijan\u2019s transit advantage extends beyond the Middle Corridor (East-West route), underpinned by the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway and the Port of Alat (Baku International Sea Trade Port). It must be noted that, on June 2, the BTK railway\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/azertag.az\/ru\/xeber\/zheleznodorozhnaya_liniya_baku_tbilisi_kars_vvoditsya_v_ekspluataciyu_posle_modernizacii-4234215\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">entered<\/a>\u00a0full-scale commercial operation, a milestone expected to increase cargo traffic along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) while reinforcing Azerbaijan\u2019s role as the principal transit hub connecting Central Asia with Europe. Following the completion of modernization works, the railway\u2019s annual freight-handling capacity increased from 1 million to 5 million tons. Simultaneously,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ru.trend.az\/azerbaijan\/politics\/4107179.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">work<\/a>\u00a0is underway on the expansion of the Port of Alat, which is expected to increase its annual capacity from 15 million to 25 million tons.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moreover, Azerbaijan has entered the final stage of developing strategically important road infrastructure within the framework of the International North-South Transport Corridor. The modernization of the 508-kilometer Silk Road highway linking Baku with the Georgian border has been\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/br.az\/politics\/108405\/nezamenimyy-transportnyy-centr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">completed<\/a>, as has the upgrade of the railway connecting Baku and Kars. A modern highway stretching from Alat to Astara and onward to the Iranian border, covering 204 kilometres, has also been completed. Three years ago, a new 152-kilometer high-speed motorway linking the settlement of Haji Zeynalabdin Taghiyev with Guba and the Russian border was opened to traffic. Along almost its entire length, the existing road infrastructure was reconstructed to meet modern international standards. The highway has been expanded to four lanes and equipped with the necessary transport infrastructure. As a result, Azerbaijan now possesses a modern, high-capacity transport network capable of supporting uninterrupted, high-volume freight traffic throughout the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, intensive work continues on modernizing the railway infrastructure of the International North-South Transport Corridor. The project is scheduled for\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/e-qanun.az\/framework\/58963\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">completion<\/a> by the end of 2028, with annual freight capacity expected to increase in stages \u2013 first to 5 million tons and eventually to 15 million tons. The railway section running through Azerbaijan is 511 kilometres long. Crucially, the segment linking the Russian and Iranian borders, which is the backbone of the corridor, is already operational. Meanwhile, completion of the Rasht-Astara railway in Iran will close the last remaining gap in the International North-South Transport Corridor. This is expected to further strengthen Azerbaijan\u2019s global transit role and establish the country as an increasingly indispensable route for international logistics operators.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Asymmetric Comparison of the North-South Corridors<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if Armenia completes the construction of the North-South highway corridor linking the country\u2019s southern border with Georgia, its functional and economic performance cannot be meaningfully compared with that of the analogous corridor in Azerbaijan. While Armenia\u2019s route may be able to operate with limited capacity, it faces two fundamental constraints that are incompatible with the requirements of modern global logistics.<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"2\">\n<li><strong>Lack of railway infrastructure.<\/strong>\u00a0Armenia\u2019s domestic corridor relies exclusively on road transport. In today\u2019s global logistics industry, the efficient movement of large freight volumes over long distances depends considerably on rail infrastructure. Owing to Armenia\u2019s mountainous terrain and the exceptionally high costs of construction, building a railway to the Iranian border remains largely unfeasible. Moreover, projects to restore the previously existing Sadarak\u2013Yeraskh and Ijevan\u2013Gazakh railway lines also face significant legal and institutional\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/arm.sputniknews.ru\/20260128\/menq-erkatughin-enq-kvorcnelu-masnagety-ghazakhijevan-gtsi-masin-97941562.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">obstacles<\/a>. Since Armenia\u2019s railway network is operated under a concession agreement by South Caucasus Railway CJSC, a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.am\/ru\/news\/940566\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">subsidiary<\/a>\u00a0of Russian Railways (RZD), Yerevan\u2019s ability to independently develop and manage its railway infrastructure is significantly constrained. As a result, plans to build a new railway from scratch, comprehensively modernize the existing network, or construct a new rail line as part of the North-South Corridor appear unlikely to materialize in the foreseeable future. Therefore, a transport corridor dependent entirely on road freight cannot compete with Azerbaijan\u2019s rail-based network. This applies to both transportation costs and cargo capacity.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Harsh climatic conditions and topographical risks.<\/strong>\u00a0Armenia\u2019s domestic transit route passes through high-altitude\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/edrc.am\/old\/images\/National_Strategies\/Industrial\/transport_strategy_%25202020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">terrain<\/a>\u00a0and mountainous passes.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/verelq.am\/hy\/armenia\/show\/97978\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Winters<\/a>\u00a0in these areas are exceptionally harsh, with heavy\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/armeniatoday.am\/society-ru\/1028302\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">snowfall<\/a>\u00a0and prolonged freezing temperatures. Avalanches, icy roads, and dense fog frequently force the closure of key mountain highways for days or even weeks at a time. As a result, adherence to the principle of timely delivery, a core requirement of global supply chains, becomes vulnerable to seasonal weather\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/hraparak.am\/am\/post\/5d2c3ddc175542be6591eaee18abe9ed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">disruptions<\/a>. By contrast, Azerbaijan\u2019s transit corridors run predominantly across lowland terrain with comparatively moderate climatic conditions, allowing for more reliable year-round operations. Hence, Armenia\u2019s roads, which are regularly affected by seasonal interruptions, pose a substantially higher operational risk for international logistics operators.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Geopolitical Paradox of the \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d Initiative and Armenia\u2019s Dependence on Azerbaijan<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At its core, Armenia\u2019s \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d initiative is intended to reduce Azerbaijan\u2019s geopolitical and geoeconomic advantage in the region by positioning Yerevan as an alternative hub through routes that bypass the regional transport architecture developed by Baku. However, the project\u2019s underlying economic and geographic realities paint an entirely different picture. Armenia\u2019s transit ambitions, both in the short- and long-term, remain fundamentally dependent on Azerbaijan. This is evident in several key areas.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Azerbaijan\u2019s decisive role in opening regional transport communications<\/strong>. Most of the routes proposed under Armenia\u2019s vision of becoming a regional transport hub either pass through Azerbaijani territory or depend directly on transport links whose reopening requires Azerbaijan\u2019s consent. The geoeconomic logic of the \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d initiative therefore contains an inherent contradiction. For the East-West axis (the Middle Corridor) to function effectively, Azerbaijan, not Armenia, remains the indispensable link. Azerbaijan already provides both rail and road connections linking Central Asia with Europe. The situation along the North-South axis differs only partially. While road transport could theoretically pass through Armenia, the railway component of the corridor cannot be realized in the foreseeable future without Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan because the necessary infrastructure simply does not exist. Moreover, even if a North-South transport link extending to T\u00fcrkiye were established, its operation would still depend on the full normalization of relations between Armenia and T\u00fcrkiye. Ankara has repeatedly stated that opening the state border is contingent upon the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Consequently, the \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d initiative itself demonstrates that most of its key transport routes depend, either directly or indirectly, on Azerbaijan\u2019s participation and the establishment of lasting regional peace. Without the strategic approval of Baku, the initiative will not be able to move beyond the conceptual stage.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Financial and institutional constraints.<\/strong>\u00a0Armenia\u2019s large-scale road construction projects depend heavily on financing from international institutions such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Investment Bank, and other external donors. Crucially, international investors are yet to show willingness to commit billions of dollars to high-risk mountain infrastructure before a comprehensive and legally durable peace settlement is reached, particularly in the absence of fully normalized relations with Azerbaijan. As a result, even the financial viability of the project is indirectly tied to the progress of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ownership and governance constraints.<\/strong>\u00a0Armenia\u2019s existing railway network will remain under the management of South Caucasus Railway CJSC, a Russian-owned company, until 2038. This institutional arrangement significantly limits Armenia\u2019s ability to develop and manage its railway system independently. In contrast, Azerbaijan\u2019s transport network operates under a more flexible state-controlled management model. Under these circumstances, Armenia is unlikely to emerge as an independent logistics platform capable of competing with Azerbaijan. Any future integration of Armenia into regional transport corridors will ultimately have to be aligned with the conditions established and shaped by the region\u2019s principal geopolitical actors, most notably Baku.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Armenia\u2019s strategy of competing with Azerbaijan in the field of regional transport connectivity has reached a strategic impasse because of fundamental structural, geographical, and climatic constraints. Evidence \u2018on-the-ground\u2019 demonstrates that Azerbaijan is already the region\u2019s principal transit hub, with both the East-West and North-South corridors operating efficiently across its territory while continuing to expand. Armenia\u2019s mountainous terrain, climatic risks, the absence of a modern railway connection to Iran, and the fact that any future Sadarak-Yeraskh railway would inevitably pass through Nakhchivan collectively make Yerevan\u2019s transit ambitions entirely dependent on Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d initiative does not possess the capacity to redirect global logistics flows. At best, it could become a limited regional branch of the broader transport architecture that Azerbaijan has already established and continues to develop. In the foreseeable future, there are no objective economic or geographical conditions that are likely to alter this pattern of dependence. As a result, Armenia\u2019s only realistic opportunity to become a transit country lies in operating within the regional framework and existing realities shaped by Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways: Azerbaijan dominates regional transit infrastructure:\u00a0With fully operational East-West (Middle Corridor) and North-South routes, expanded BTK railway (now 5 million tons capacity), and Port of Alat upgrades (to 25 million tons), Azerbaijan handles millions of tons of freight annually and continues expanding an existing network. Armenia\u2019s \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d initiative faces severe constraints:\u00a0Mountainous terrain,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-air-center","category-articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1971"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1971\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1973,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1971\/revisions\/1973"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/think-tanks.az\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}